SINDOOR TAKEAWAY 1: DILEMMA: Proxy Wars Break Rules. Governments Play by Rules. Proxy Fighters Write Their Own.

Pakistan’s Proxy Writes Own Rules. Handicaps India—Disruptive Strategies Must Lead. Let Unpredictability Run the Show.

Surgical Strikes Work—But Only as Message. Nothing More

• India’s cross-border strikes post-Uri and Balakot sent a message but didn’t end terrorism. They changed perception and raised the cost of provocation, but they’re not long-term solutions.

The real challenge lies in crafting a multi-dimensional deterrence framework—one that doesn’t just defend, but dissuades. A deterrence that signals, loud and clear, to Pakistan and any potential adversary

HOW SHOULD INDIA RESPOND TO PAKISTAN THREAT

Five Real Strengths That Deter War in the Modern World –

1.Strategic Unpredictability:

If the adversary can predict your response, they’ll plan around it. But if your doctrine includes calibrated ambiguity—they hesitate.

Think Israel’s nuclear opacity or India’s shift to cross-border strikes in 2016 and 2019.

Deterrence = Confusion + Capability.

2.Economic Leverage:

If the economy is deeply embedded in global supply chains, or essential to another's stability, you're not easily provoked.

China’s deterrence comes not just from its army but from how costly it would be for the world to go to war with it.

Trade can be armour.

3.Information Dominance

Controlling narratives—globally and domestically—can shape battlefields without firing a shot.

If you can expose your enemy’s aggression or manipulate public opinion, you gain time, allies, and moral ground.

Information is a weapon. And a shield.

4. Resilience Over Reaction

A nation that can absorb hits without destabilizing is harder to target.

Israel and Ukraine both show this—resilience invites global support and exhausts the attacker.

Endurance deters more than escalation.

5. Alliances & Perception of Backing

A solitary strongman can be attacked. But a nation seen as part of a coalition—even loosely—forces opponents to calculate the risk of wider conflict.

Pakistan didn’t fear India’s retaliation as much as it feared India’s growing ties with the U.S., France, and Israel.

DETERRENCE IS PERCEPTION MANAGEMENT.

Bottom Line

War isn’t deterred by tanks—it’s deterred by costs, uncertainty, and consequence. India needs to build not just a military, but a posture:

• Unpredictable

• Economically indispensable

• Narrative-savvy

• Resilient

• Networked

Only then does war become unthinkable for the other side.

How has SINDOOR Addressed this Challenge

1. Second-Strike Capability

One of the core challenges in nuclear deterrence is ensuring survivability after a first strike. India has made it known that it has submarine based hidden, mobile second-strike option—crucial for maintaining credible minimum deterrence against both China and Pakistan.

What it tells the enemy: You may hit first, but we will still respond. And you won’t know from where.

2. Counter to Asymmetric Threats

While submarines and SLBMs are not meant to fight terrorists, they neutralize the strategic cover that Pakistan thinks it has due to its nuclear arsenal. SINDOOR platforms raise the cost of escalation even for proxy war misadventures.

Message to Pakistan: Even limited war carries unlimited risks.

3. Strengthening Strategic Autonomy

SINDOOR represents India’s push for indigenous strategic tech—missiles like K-15 and platforms like Arihant have reduced reliance on foreign powers and tech embargoes. That’s critical in wartime, when external supplies are least reliable.

India can now strike back without needing anyone’s permission—or parts.

4. Psychological Deterrence

Submarines are stealth tools. Their mere presence or rumoured location changes enemy behaviour. The ambiguity around how many are operational, where they are, and what they carry introduces strategic hesitation.

Uncertainty is a weapon. SINDOOR has used it well.

Bottom Line

SINDOOR doesn’t counter asymmetric warfare directly—but it deters strategic adventurism that enables it. It ensures that any escalation by Pakistan or China comes with existential consequences.

Realizing that, India has taken to assert a constant pressure over an extended period of time. India leveraged its initial success to put Control Parameters in place to ensure Pakistan does not misadventure again. India launched SINDOOR, - a composite initiative and has given initial victory and laid grounds for total victory