REDRAWING MAPS, REWRITING DESTINIES

Immediate Future: Re-Negotiating CPEC’s Passage Through India

This is based on likely significant shifts in more immediate future in the geopolitical dynamics of the Indian Sub-Continent, specifically India gaining control of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Baluchistan achieving independence. In this drastically altered reality, we consider China will be forced to change its approach to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

CURRENT CONTEXT

CPEC is a flagship project of China's Belt and Road Initiative, carrying substantial strategic and economic weight for Beijing. Its current alignment through PoK is a point of contention with India, which claims the territory as its own. Baluchistan, a region through which CPEC also passes, has a long-standing separatist movement and has witnessed instability impacting CPEC projects.

EVOLVING NEW REALITY

India will leverage its military strength, geopolitical manoeuvring and current success from Sindoor to successfully integrate PoK. Simultaneously, Baluchistan will achieve independence, very soon through a protracted struggle and with support from Taliban, Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan and India. This will fundamentally alter the territorial landscape through which the current CPEC route passes.

CHINA'S POTENTIAL ADAPTATION

 In the more immediate future, China would face a critical juncture regarding the future of CPEC. A complete abandonment of the corridor would represent a significant strategic and economic setback, impacting its BRI ambitions and its access to the Arabian Sea. Therefore, a pragmatic adaptation to the new realities becomes a plausible consideration.

POTENTIAL PASSAGE AGREEMENTS

• Through PoK as an integral part of India: Recognizing PoK is India now; China would be compelled to engage in direct negotiations with New Delhi to secure a passage for CPEC. This would inadvertently mean:

  • Acknowledging PoK an integral part of India

  • Offering significant economic incentives and guarantees to India regarding the security and nature of the transit.

  • Potentially exploring joint ventures or infrastructure development along the route that benefits both nations.

  • Maintaining a delicate diplomatic balance to avoid alienating its long-standing ally, Pakistan (in its diminished form).

• Through Independent Baluchistan: With Baluchistan as a new independent nation, China would need to establish diplomatic and economic ties to ensure the continued passage of CPEC. This again would inadvertently mean

  • Formally recognition of Baluchistan's sovereignty.

  • Negotiating a transit agreement that duly compensates Baluchistan for the use of its territory. This compensation could include substantial infrastructure investment, economic aid, and preferential trade arrangements.

  • Providing security assurances and potentially collaborating with Baluchistan on safeguarding the corridor within its borders.

  • Learning from past grievances and ensuring that the development associated with CPEC benefits the local population and respects Baluchistan's sovereignty.

DRIVING FACTORS FOR CHINA'S COMPROMISE:

• Economic Imperative: The massive investment already committed to CPEC makes its complete abandonment a costly proposition. Finding a way to salvage the project, even though a renegotiated route, would be economically prudent.

• Strategic Necessity: Access to the Arabian Sea remains crucial for China's energy security and its broader strategic outreach. Adapting CPEC to the new territorial realities might be the most viable way to maintain this access.

• Geopolitical Pragmatism: As a rising superpower, China often prioritizes its core interests. In this scenario, ensuring the functionality of a vital economic corridor might outweigh historical allegiances or ideological rigidity.

CHALLENGES AND CONSIDERATIONS:

• Navigating the sensitivities of its relationship with Pakistan.

• Securing reliable and stable agreements with both India and to be Republic of Baluchistan.

• Addressing potential security risks and ensuring the smooth operation of the corridor through new and potentially volatile territories.

• Managing domestic and international perceptions of a significant shift in its regional policy.