BALUCHISTAN: THE PAWN OF THREE EMPIRES

China Digs, America Deploys—The Baloch Are Buried Deeper.

Rather unfortunate, both China and the US want to leverage Baluchistan to address Its regional interests but are insensitive to the oppression that Baloch have been suffering at the hands of Punjabi run Pakistan.

SUMMARY OF KEY DYNAMICS:

ACTOR	INTEREST IN BALUCHISTAN
Pakistan	Control and suppression of insurgency, retain strategic coastline, monetize its wealth, appease both U.S. and China
U.S.	Use Baluchistan as launchpad into Iran (especially via the porous border)
China	Maintain dominance over Gwadar Port, protect CPEC interests, prevent Western access
Baloch Insurgents	Fight for independence, resource control, and de-militarization

IF U.S. SEEKS AN IRAN INCURSION VIA BALOCHISTAN:

✅ What Pakistan Gets:

• Money, legitimacy, and leverage over Iran

• Western political cover to suppress the Baloch freedom movement

• Potential removal from grey lists or IMF sweeteners

❌ What Pakistan Risks:

• Chinese backlash for allowing U.S. proximity to Gwadar

• Civil war intensifying within Balochistan if insurgents see this as foreign occupation

• Iran may arm Baloch separatists in response

China’s Non-Negotiable: Gwadar

• China views Gwadar Port as its lifeline to the Arabian Sea and vital for energy security.

• It has built a militarized economic enclave—guarded by PLA assets, Pakistani Army, and local militias.

• Any U.S. troop or naval presence in or near Gwadar is a red line for Beijing.

China may tolerate American presence in northern Balochistan, but not in the coastal south where Gwadar sits.

U.S. Port Options — If Not Gwadar, Then What?

1. Ormara (200 km east of Gwadar): Smaller naval base under Pakistan Navy. Could be discreetly upgraded for U.S. access.

2. Pasni: Historically used by the U.S. during the Afghan war. Less sensitive than Gwadar.

3. Makran coast deepwater access (new build): Long-term possibility if U.S. builds independent logistics corridor, backed by UAE.

THE U.S.-PAKISTAN STRATEGIC BARGAIN

If America uses Balochistan to strike Iran:

• Pakistan will demand recognition of its sovereignty over Baluchistan.

• U.S. will likely side against Baloch independence, in exchange for base rights, overflight corridors, or launch pads.

• China may tighten its own grip, fearing dual encirclement.

LIKELY FUTURE SCENARIOS:

🟥 Scenario 1: Iran Struck, Balochistan Burns

• U.S. enters via Baloch corridor

• Iran backs Baloch militants in retaliation

• China deploys “advisors” to Gwadar

• Pakistan fights two insurgencies: in the hills and on the coast

🟥 Scenario 2: Silent Compromise

• Pakistan offers logistical help from Ormara or Pasni

• U.S. doesn't recognize Baluchistan's claim to independence

• China tolerates the deal as long as Gwadar is untouched

🟥 Scenario 3: Baluchistan Secured, but Not Settled

• Pakistan suppresses insurgents harder

• U.S. exits Iran quickly, leaving Baluchistan militarized

• Baloch anger simmers into a longer, bloodier insurgency

• China builds Baluchistan as a Chinese-administered buffer zone

CONCLUSION:

Baluchistan has become the bargaining chip in a brutal chess game between the U.S., Pakistan, and China — and yesterday’s U.S. strikes on Iran have only made its fate more precarious.

• The U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites (Fordo, Natanz, Isfahan) on June 21, 2025 marks a dramatic escalation in its Middle East policy

• If Washington uses Baluchistan as a springboard for operations against Iran, it will demand that Pakistan reinforce control, not offer autonomy — ending any hope of independence for the Baloch people.

• At the same time, China’s grip on Gwadar, the jewel of its CPEC ambitions, means Islamabad must protect Chinese-built infrastructure even as it complies with U.S. requests.

The result? A militarized, geopolitically contested Baluchistan, rich in economic promise but devoid of political voice. The Baloch — their grievances silenced, their lands used and their autonomy traded — will become collateral damage in global power projection.

A PAINFUL SUMMATION

It’s the ultimate betrayal—global powers like China and the United States are scrambling to carve up Baluchistan for their own gain, while the cries of its people—silenced, tortured, disappeared by a Punjabi-run regime—are met with indifference. The land is rich and strategic. The people are just not important.